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November 3rd, 2016
By all indications, Americans are buying more guns than ever before. Some pundits have joked that President Obama is the “greatest gun salesman in history”. Looking at NICS (FBI instant check) records, Dean Weingarten of the Gun Watch Blog concludes that 2016 will see new records set, likely surpassing 2015 as the year with the highest number of gun sales ever. CLICK Link to Gun Watch.
Weingarten writes:
The private firearm stock in the United States will have increased by nearly 100 million firearms, or 30%, during the two terms of the Barack Obama presidency.
Many indicators show a soaring and diverse level of gun ownership. Carry permits are burgeoning, approaching 15 million and more. Gun ownership among women and minorities is at an all-time high.
This October continued the record-breaking pace to establish 2016 as the year with the most gun sales ever. The 2016 NICS checks are far ahead of those for 2015, the previous record holder. In October 2016 there were 2,333,539 National Instant Checks done. In 2015, the NICS done in October were 1,976,759.
In 2015, the total NICS checks for the year were 23,141,970. In 2016, through October, they were 22,206,233. That is less than 1 million below the total for 2015, with the two biggest months in 2016 yet to happen. Last year there were 17,584,346 by the end of October.
A record number of NICS Checks may take place in 2016. Photo: Benton Co. Gunworks.
The numbers are 26.3% ahead of where 2015 was at this time. If this pace continues, 2016 will end up with 29.2 million background checks for the year.
Given the NICS numbers, there will probably be 17 to 18 million guns added to the private stock in 2016. That would increase the total number to over 400 million private firearms in the United States.
Who would have thought that President Obama would be the record-setting, all time champion, gun salesman? The total NICS checks will reach over 250 million by years end. That will be over 150 million firearms added to the private stock in the last 18 years (there are 0.6 sales per check on average). Over 37% of the private firearms stock will be less than 18 years old.
©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
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June 22nd, 2016
The recent Orlando terror attack has sent Americans to gun stores in droves. Prompted by concerns for self-protection (as well as proposed new gun control laws), Americans are buying more guns — all types of guns. This reflects a general trend over the past few years. In fact, it looks like 2016 will see the highest number of gun sales in American history. Based on FBI background check data, it appears that 2016 will set new records for gun sales, with nearly 17 million new guns sold. By the end of the year it is projected that Americans will own 405 million firearms — over 1.25 guns per capita*.
Record-Setting Gun Sales in 2016
by Dean Weingarten, Gunwatch.
In 2016, Americans continue to break records for gun sales. While the National Instant Check System (NICS) does not track gun sales directly, the numbers are highly correlated. The numbers of NICS checks, and the increase in private firearms, have skyrocketed during the Obama administration.
It is possible, even likely, that 2016 will reach over 28 million instant checks. If we reach 28 million instant checks in 2016, that will be about 16.8 million new firearms added to the stock in 2016 [roughly 40% of NICS checks are for “previously owned” guns]. That projection puts us at 405 million private firearms in the United States at the end of 2016.
The total for 2016 (through the end of May) is 11,698,006 instant checks. That is more than the entire year of 2007, which held the record up to that year. Thus, during the Obama years, the number of private firearm sales has doubled. In 2015, the highest year on record, the total number of checks was 23,141,970. 2016 is shaping up to break the 2015 record by millions of instant checks.
May 2016 had the most instant checks of all the months of May on record. That makes 13 months in a row that have broken records for all previous years. If the trend continues, 2016 will reach the record numbers of 2015 by the end of October, with the busy months of November and December still ahead.
©2016 by Dean Weingarten, Gunwatch. Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
*The USA has an estimated population of 322,762,018 according to a 2015 end-of-year estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: USNews.com.
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December 1st, 2015
Based on NICS data, a record number of firearms were sold on “Black Friday”, the day after Thanksgiving. More background checks were recorded on Friday, November 27th, 2015 than on any day in American history. And for the 4-day period, 26-29 November (2015), a total of 368,774 NICS background checks were completed — nearly 10% more than the year before.
 Black Friday 2015 Was Biggest Single Day Ever for Gun Sales
Thanks to attractive promotions from many vendors such as Brownells and Cabelas, all types of firearms flew off the shelves last week, which was the highest Black Friday period in the history of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS).
The FBI, which administers NICS, reports that NICS processed 185,345 transactions on November 27, Black Friday, making the day the highest Black Friday ever and the highest day in NICS history. The highest previous day was December 21, 2012 with 177,170 background checks. For the entire November 26-29, 2015 four-day Black Friday period 368,774 checks were completed, a 9.9% increase over the 335,555 checks conducted over the corresponding 2014 4-day period.
Background Checks Vs. Actual Sales
NICS statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.
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March 21st, 2015
Add the Washington Post to the growing list of sources that credit President Obama with being the best salesman for firearms and ammunition that the country has seen since Samuel Colt. Using a simple linear trend analysis based on NSSF-supplied data, Washington Post writer Philip Bump calculated that the U.S. firearms industry has enjoyed a $9 to $10 billion increase in sales of guns and ammo during President Obama’s terms in office. CLICK HERE for full story in Washington Post.
Take a look at this chart — it shows a huge increase in sales of long guns, handguns, and ammunition during the Obama presidency. (NOTE: There is a decline at the extreme right of the chart because 2014 data only goes through the third quarter of the year.) You can seen why there have been shortages of ammunition. Look at the huge spike in ammo sales (orange zone) over the past six years. This may explain why some retailers ironically refer to the nation’s top elected official as “President ObAMMO”.
By comparing past industry sales numbers with figures for the past six years, the Washington Post calculates that the firearms industry has enjoyed a remarkable period of growth: “If you calculate out the difference between what might have been expected and what was, it’s about a $10 billion increase [in sales]”. We’ve seen evidence that things are cooling off, but according to the Washington Post: “The $9 to $10 billion in increase under Obama will keep growing, through the end of 2016. At which point gun manufacturers will probably be sad to see Obama go — even if gun buyers are not.”
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November 30th, 2014
According to CNN, more guns were sold on November 28, 2014 (Black Friday), than on any other day in the history of the United States. Background check processing was running well ahead of Black Friday 2013 when the previous single-day record of 144,758 FBI-processed gun transactions was set. In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2014 that the FBI was processing three background checks every second.
Think about that — three gun sales per second. That’s triple the normal rate of gun sales. The website The Blaze reported: “The typical Black Friday boom in gun sales doubles the number of background checks handled by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), from one per second on an average day to two per second. By Friday afternoon, that figure had reached three checks per second … putting 2014 on track to blow past the prior Black Friday record of 144,758 FBI-processed gun transactions in a single day.”
An FBI spokesman said that FBI staffers would be working overtime all through this weekend to deal with the vast number of background check requests, working to ease the backlog.
Photo courtesy BullocksGuns.com, Flint, MI.
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January 9th, 2014
 Earlier this week, the U.S. District Court in Illinois declared the City of Chicago’s ban on the sale of firearms to be “unconstitutional under the Second Amendment”. The ruling was issued in a court case filed by Illinois firearms dealers and gun owners, challenging Chicago ordinances that ban virtually all sales and transfers of firearms inside Chicago city limits.
U.S. District Court Judge Edmond Chang held that the Second Amendment includes “the right to acquire a firearm, although that acquisition right is far from absolute[.] But Chicago’s ordinance goes too far in outright banning legal buyers and legal dealers from engaging in lawful acquisitions and lawful sales of firearms[.]”
Click this link to read full decision of U.S. District Court (Northern District of Illinois):
Illinois Assn. of Firearms Retailers et al vs. City of Chicago, et al. (Memorandum Opinion and Order)
[Chicago] Municipal Code § 8-20-100 and the City’s zoning ordinance (MCC § 17-16-0201), which ban gun sales and transfers other than inheritance, are declared unconstitutional under the Second Amendment. The Court will enter judgment for Plaintiffs [Illinois Assn. of Firearms Retailers]. — Order by U.S. District Judge Hon. Edmond E. Chang.
Lawrence G. Keane, NSSF senior vice president and general counsel commented: “This is an important decision because the Court recognized that the lawful commerce in firearms, in which NSSF members are engaged, is protected by the Second Amendment.”
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August 14th, 2013
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July 27th, 2013
 Americans are buying more guns than ever. FBI NICS Gun Purchase Background Check data (as adjusted by the NSSF), shows that June 2013 gun sales are up 3.0% over the same period Last Year (See Chart 1). This marks the 37th straight month that NSSF-adjusted NICS figures have increased when compared to the same period the previous year. (This year’s January increase was even more dramatic — see Chart 2). What’s even more interesting, in June 2013, Americans purchased more than twice as many guns as they did a decade ago in June 2003 — roughly 870,000 vs. roughly 405,000. That’s a big difference.
CHART 1 — Adjusted NICS Checks in Month of June
CHART 2 — Adjusted NICS Checks in Month of January
Understanding the Numbers
The June 2013 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 872,025 is an increase of 3.0 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 846,437 in June 2012. The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks used by several states such as Connecticut, Illinois, and Utah for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide a more accurate picture of current market conditions. For additional information on NICS or to view a complete set of the current monthly reports, please visit the NICS website.
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November 28th, 2012
 On November 23, 2012 (Black Friday), Americans purchased more guns than on any other day in history. Gun sales (based on NICS background check data) set a new single-day record. This year, the FBI logged 154,873 Black Friday background checks, up 20% from the 129,166 back-ground checks done on Black Friday 2011. And, since a NICS check may authorize purchase of multiple guns, the 154,873 number may “under-count” the actual number of firearms purchased on Black Friday this year.
Recent election outcomes may have influenced the spike in gun sales. People are concerned that more restrictive gun control laws may be enacted during President Obama’s second term. Writing in Ammoland.com, AWR Hawkins declared: “The bottom line: Americans want their guns. And it appears they’re getting them before Obama has the chance to do anything about it.” Hawkins adds: “As in 2011, women were increasingly among those buying guns on Black Friday. And first time buyers, whether male or female, were also well represented.”
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November 23rd, 2012
NSSF story By Bill Brassard
Post-election reports indicate a rising demand for firearms nationwide. If 2012 follows past trends (based on federal background check data), gun sales on the day after Thanksgiving — Black Friday — will hit record levels.
Over the past four years (November 2008 through the December 2011), four of the top 10 most active days for background checks were Black Fridays. (See Chart.) The single-day record for most background checks was set on November 26, 2011, when more than 129,000 were made by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The second highest Black Friday total was on November 28, 2008, only weeks after President Barack Obama was elected to his first term. That total of 97,848 was a record number of background checks at that time.
Given the president’s reelection and also his call in the third debate for renewed restrictions on semi-automatic firearms, will a new record be set this Black Friday, November 23?
A background check is mandatory prior to the purchase of any firearm at retail. Background-check statistics are indicators of sales activity, though it’s important to note that for a variety of reasons a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a background check and a firearm purchase.
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June 8th, 2012
Based on data from the National Instant-Check System (NICS), gun sales continue to rise. Halfway through this election year, the number of guns sold continues to climb, and the trend is expected to continue throughout 2012. The May 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 840,412 represents an increase of 20.6% over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 696,947 in May 2011*. For comparison, the unadjusted May 2012 NICS figure of 1,305,392 reflects a 7% increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,219,872 in May 2011. This marks the 24th straight month that NSSF-adjusted NICS figures have increased compared to the same period the previous year.
With President Obama’s campaign looking strong at this time, Americans are stocking up on guns and ammo in anticipation of new gun-control legislation that could be enacted during the next 4-year Presidential term. In addition, there is the possibility that the next President could nominate one or more Supreme Court Justices to replace aging members of the High Court. That creates uncertainty about future rulings on Second Amendment issues.
*Though not a direct correlation to firearms sales, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data provide a more accurate picture of current market conditions. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions of firearms sales and transfers on new and used handguns and long guns.
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January 5th, 2012
Americans of all walks of life are purchasing more pistols, rifles, and shotguns than ever before. Based on NSSF-adjusted FBI background check (NICS) records, American purchased 10,791,275 firearms in 2011. That’s an all-time record, and a 14% increase over 2010. Gun sales hit a new high in 2011 after a decade of steady increases (see chart). In 2002, ten years ago, slightly less than 7,000,000 firearms were sold. The 2011 sales figure represents a 54.1% increase over 2002 sales. And the NICS figures are conservative, because they do not report multiple gun sales made with a single background check.
Gun Ownership Becomes More Universal
The increase in gun sales over the last ten years reflects growth in the ranks of gun owners. A significant percentage of recent sales have been made to first-time gun owners. And more women are arming themselves. Gun ownership is becoming more universal, not limited to the traditional groups of male hunters and sportsmen. A recent Gallup Poll found that: “47 percent of American adults currently report that they have a gun in their home or on their property”.
 First-time buyers and women are driving the spike in gun sales. USA Today reports: “Some gun industry analysts attributed the unusual surge to a convergence of factors, including an increasing number of first-time buyers seeking firearms for protection and women who are being drawn to sport shooting and hunting.” Confirming that view, Bloomberg.com states that more women, liberals, and Democrats are buying guns. Multiple factors are at work according to CNBC.com: “Uncertainty in a presidential election year. Warriors returning from the battlefields. The comeback of the hunter. These are just some of the reasons… why firearms makers are ringing in 2012 like gangbusters.”
Gallup Gun Ownership Poll Summary
“A clear societal change took place regarding gun ownership in the early 1990s, when the percentage of Americans saying there was a gun in their home or on their property dropped from the low to mid-50s into the low to mid-40s and remained at that level for the next 15 years. Whether this reflected a true decline in gun ownership or a cultural shift in Americans’ willingness to say they had guns is unclear. However, the new data suggest that attitudes may again be changing. At 47%, reported gun ownership is the highest it has been in nearly two decades — a finding that may be related to Americans’ dampened support for gun-control laws. However, to ensure that this year’s increase reflects a meaningful rebound in reported gun ownership, it will be important to see whether the uptick continues in future polling.”
The NSSF adjusts NICS data by subtracting out NICS purpose-code permit checks used by several states such as Kentucky, Iowa and Utah for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. In addition to other purposes, NICS is used to check transactions of firearms sales and transfers on new and used handguns and long guns. For more NICS info visit the NICS website.
Photo by KapapCombative.com.
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