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December 1st, 2021
Photo courtesy BullocksGuns.com, Flint, MI.
Americans are buying guns in record numbers again. With rising crime levels in America’s big cities and the recent wave of Smash and Grab attacks at shopping malls, Americans are concerned about their security. And so they are arming themselves.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) has noted that the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) processed 687,788 background checks during the week leading up to and including Black Friday. The FBI recorded 187,585 NICS checks on Black Friday 2021 alone, ranking it among the Top 10 Highest Days for NICS checks. NOTE: The NICS checks numbers are unadjusted, representing raw data from the FBI, and are inclusive of all background checks related to firearms.
Predicting a massive buying surge, the NSSF worked with firearm retailers to spread out special sales offers to customers throughout the week leading up to Black Friday. The extended sales period was intended to push out purchases over multiple days, so that the FBI NICS system was not overwhelmed on Black Friday, resulting in longer-than-normal wait times.
2021 May Be the Second Highest Year for Gun Sales Ever
“This figure of over 687,000 background checks [in one week] is truly remarkable,” said Joe Bartozzi, NSSF President and CEO. “This year has already been shaping up to be the second strongest year for firearm sales on record, second only to 2020’s record-breaking number of 21 million background checks for a firearm sale. We anticipate, based on annual data, that firearm sales will rise during the final month of the year coinciding with hunting seasons and holiday sales. This figure, though, underscores the appetite for lawful firearm ownership in America and the resilience of the firearm and ammunition industry to meet that demand.”
Below are the totals for each day of unadjusted FBI NICS background checks from November 20, 2021 though Black Friday 2021 on November 26, 2021:
Fast and Furious — FBI Processes 2.2 NICS Checks Per Second
On Black Friday 2021, the FBI NICS Background Check system processed 187,585 gun purchase checks, one of the highest daily totals ever (though not a record). In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2021 that the FBI was processing 2.2 background checks every second, triple the typical NICS daily rate.
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April 3rd, 2020
The current Coronavirus Pandemic may be the most significant event to impact the United States since World War II. The majority of Americans are now “sheltering at home” under State Executive Orders. Across the nation, schools, shops, restaurants, and countless businesses are closed. The virus continues to spread at an exponential rate in the USA, which now has more confirmed Covid-19 cases than any other country on the planet. Yes, according to official statistics, we have more persons infected than does China, where this scourge originated. (However, there is considerable evidence that China may be deliberately under-reporting COVID-19 infections and deaths).
For obvious reasons, this Pandemic has Americans concerned about their safety and their security. As a result, citizens across the country are purchasing firearms. There are lines outside the doors of some gunshops. The rush to buy guns has led to a historic spike in NICS firearms background checks.
Record Number of FBI Background Checks for Gun Sales
According to MSN News, “With most of the nation in isolation to halt the spread of coronavirus, officials are seeing a spike in gun sales….the FBI has seen a 41% increase in background checks compared to this time last year.” According to the FBI, 3.7 million background check were run by the FBI in March.
Click Image to Go to MSN to Watch Video (then Click Speaker icon for audio).
And Fox News confirms that we are seeing a huge spike in gun sales and background checks: “The FBI ran more than 3.7 million gun background checks on Americans under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) in March, smashing the previous record as Americans armed themselves amid growing fears about the coronavirus pandemic. The NICS system ran 3,740,688 background checks in March, which is 33 percent higher than the previous record of more than 2.8 million, which was set in February. The February numbers were a 34 percent uptick from the same time in 2019. March’s background check numbers marked a 41 percent increase over March 2019.”
About the Numbers — There is NOT a 1:1 correspondence between NICS checks and gun purchases, because not all background checks involve an actual purchases. For example, some States run NICS checks for carry permit applications. It is estimated that at least 2.3 million March 2020 background checks were for firearms transactions.
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February 4th, 2019
Where in the USA are guns most popular, on a per-capita basis? Look at this chart. The states with darker purple have the most background checks per capita. The Top 10, in order, are:
1. Kentucky – 1012
2. Illinois – 198
3. Indiana – 123
4. West Virginia – 119
5. Idaho – 109 |
6. Montana – 101
7. Minnesota – 98
8. South Dakota – 94
9. Tennesse – 92 (Tie)
10. Wyoming – 92 (Tie) |
Kentucky has a far higher number than any other state — 1012 per 1000 residents, and 4,508,298 overall per year. That’s not because the Bluegrass State has more avid gun owners (per capita) than elsewhere in the country. Rather, Kentucky has more background checks per capita because it is the only state that requires all concealed carry permit holders to undergo automatic monthly rechecks. That means 12 checks per year. Other states might have a single background check when the firearm is acquired.
Trends in Background Checks and Gun Ownership
The total number of background checks has risen steadily for nearly the past 20 years (though there was a slight decrease in 2017). In 2018, Federal Firearms License (FFL) dealers initiated more than 23 million background checks, with significant variations in how many requests came in from each state.
Gun Control Legislation on the Rise Nationwide
In 2018, the 50 U.S. states passed 69 new gun control measures. Those 69 new laws are more than three times the number passed in 2017.
The struggle between gun rights and gun control continues on both a state and a national level. Seeing this wave of new legislation makes one wonder, “how many of these new laws will really reduce crime or enhance personal safety?” Or, rather, are the vast majority of these laws merely intended to restrict the rights of law-abiding citizens, banning new classes of arms or creating new costs (and hassles) for gun owners. The anti-gunners’ strategy is to work incrementally, banning one type of firearm after another. The goal, ultimately, is to ban handguns altogether, and to ban all semi-automatic rifles.
Information in this report provided by YourLocalSecurity.com.
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January 6th, 2018
By Dean Weingarten, GunWatch Blog
The first year of the Trump era National Instant Check System (NICS) has ended with the second highest number of NICS background checks on record. There were 2,586,138 NICS checks in December of 2017. There were 25,235,215 NICS checks for all of 2017. At the current 56 firearms per 100 checks ratio, we can expect that over 14 million firearms have been added to the private stock in 2017*. The number of private firearms in the U.S. is now approximately 418 million.
That is a drop of 9% from 2016 to 2017, but it is 9% higher than 2015. The only year to surpass 2017 was 2016, with 27,538,673, when Hillary Clinton was widely considered a shoo-in to be the next president. The next highest year was 2015, with 23,141,970. December 2017’s numbers alone were the fourth highest December on record, behind 2012, 2015, and 2016.
Prices Drop for Guns and Ammo
The reduction from the overheated firearms market that existed in 2016 is significant. NICS checks dropped by 9 percent. With that drop, prices of guns and ammunition have also dropped. And supply has increased — .22 LR ammunition is being seen on shelves where it had been mostly absent for four years. Bargain prices for modern sporting rifles such as AR-15 clones and good quality pistols have kept the overall numbers from dropping further.
It is a buyer’s market now for Guns and Ammo. Vendors are offering big discounts on Black Rifles such as the Savage MSR line.
© 2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
*In a year and a month or two, we will know just how many firearms were added to the private stock in 2017. The ATF is not allowed to release the actual manufacture, import and export numbers for a year, by law. Note — there is NOT a 1:1 correspondence between NICS checks and gun sales. About 100 NICS checks are done for each 56 new firearms that are added to the private stock in the United States.
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November 26th, 2017
Make no mistake — Americans still love guns. On “Black Friday”, November 24, 2017, a record number of guns were sold. Based on FBI National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data, a new single-day record was set for gun transactions in the USA. More background checks were recorded on Friday, November 24th, 2017 than on any day in American history.
USA Today reported: “The FBI was flooded Friday with more than 200,000 background check requests for gun purchases, setting a new single day record, the Bureau reported Saturday. In all, the FBI fielded 203,086 requests on Black Friday, up from the previous single-day highs of 185,713 last year and 185,345 in 2015. The two previous records also were recorded on Black Friday.”
Black Friday 2017 Was Biggest Single Day Ever for U.S. Gun Sales
Thanks to attractive promotions from many vendors such as Brownells and Cabela’s, all types of firearms flew off the shelves last week. The FBI, which administers NICS, reports that NICS processed 203,086 transactions on November 24, 2017, making the day the highest Black Friday ever and the highest day in NICS history. The highest previous day was November 25, 2016 with 185,713 background checks.
The FireArm Blog notes: “This record-setting day comes [despite] a slowdown in gun sales on the heels of the surprise 2016 election results. It seems likely that overall demand for guns continues to be strong, but that in the absence of any imminent gun legislation buyers have more patience to wait for sales like those offered on Black Friday.”
Background Checks Vs. Actual Sales
NICS statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.
Fast and Furious — FBI Processes Three NICS Checks Per Second
On Black Friday 2017, NICS Background Check processing topped Black Friday 2016 when the previous single-day record of FBI-processed gun transactions was set. In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2017 that the FBI was processing three background checks every second. Think about that — three gun transactions per second. That’s triple the typical NICS daily rate.
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September 21st, 2017
We all know that ammo prices have dropped and gunmakers are discounting handguns and rifles. But have gun sales really dropped that much since the 2016 Presidential election? Actually not. Recently released data from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) show that gun sales remain at near-record levels.
The expected drop in firearms sales has been minimal. Sales are at historically high levels, only a little less than the records set in 2016. If the economy continues to pick up, 2017 will be the second highest year on record for NICS background checks. — Dean Weingarten
According to Dean Weigarten: “Firearm sales and NICS checks are having a good year. In 2017, the overall NICS checks are at 92% of the all-time record through August.” 2017 will probably surpass 2015 as the second-highest year for NICS checks since 1999, when the program started. (2016 was the highest year ever). And notably, the trend is up: NICS checks were 1,925,146 in August 2017. That beat the August 2016 number of 1,853,815, the previous high mark for the month.
Report by Dean Weingarten
The Trump era of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) checks has had eight months of high sales. The record for NICS checks was set in 2016, with over 27 million NICS checks for the year. 2015 was the second highest year for NICS checks with over 23 million checks done.
This chart reveals that the annual number of NICS Checks has more than doubled in the last decade!
Source: www.FBI.gov
The high number of NICS checks reflects an expanded base of firearms owners and shooters who are buying more guns under the expectation of a prosperous Trump Presidency. Gallup released a poll on September 8th, that shows U.S. investor optimism at a 17-year high….
Now is a Good Time to Buy — Especially AR Platform Rifles
There is a high inventory of firearms for sale, and many good quality AR-15 types can be had for under $500. Ammunition prices have been slowly dropping.
Growth of Concealed Carry by Americans Drives NICS Numbers
The number of people with carry licenses continues to soar. There are over 16.5 million. At the time of this report, the number has likely surpassed 17 million. Carry permit holders are 5-15% of voters in many states [such as] Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. When a carry permit is obtained or renewed, another NICS check is done.
NICS checks are done for Federal Firearms License sales of used guns as well as new ones. The latest estimation of the ratio of NICS checks to the addition of private firearms stock is about 0.53 private firearms added for each NICS check done. If that ratio holds in 2017, about 8.6 million more firearms have been added to the private stock in 2017 thus far.
©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
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July 5th, 2017
The data-packed July issue of Shooting Industry magazine reveals key gun industry metrics — such as background checks, financial results from publicly-traded gun-makers, and the latest U.S. firearms manufacturing production data. The annual U.S. Firearms Today Report presents a comprehensive review of gun industry activity, including data on firearm production by caliber, shifts in export/import totals and the top 25 U.S. firearm manufacturers from 2015 (the latest data available).
As indicated by the ATF’s 2015 Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Export, the industry rebounded across several categories after a challenging 2014. Total firearms production increased from 8,692,461 in 2014 to 8,911,530 in 2015, growth of 2.5 percent. For the eighth year in a row, Ruger was the top overall U.S. firearms manufacturer with 1,667,820 firearms produced in 2015, while Smith & Wesson and Remington were the leading handgun and long-gun manufacturers, respectively. One notable trend is that Savage Arms significantly increased its production output compared to other leading rifle-makers.
Here are the top three rifle makers in 2015 with percentage change from 2014:
• Remington: 774,180 (-16.7%) | Ruger: 662,444 (-6.2%) | Savage Arms: 381,695 (+24.8%)
Gun Sales Trends in 2017 Compared to 2015
The Firearms Today Report reports that, contrary to some perceptions, gun sales remain strong: “Comparing the first five months of 2017 to 2015 (which was the second-largest year for U.S. firearms manufacturing), the industry is performing well. NICS background checks increased by 6.7 percent (from 5,427,494 to 5,793,571) from January through May 2017 compared to the corresponding months in 2015.”
The lastest issue of Shooting Industry (and all 2017 and 2016 monthly issues) can be accessed in their entirety online at www.shootingindustry.com/digital-version. CLICK HERE for July 2017 Digital Edition.
Story Lead from EdLongrange. We welcome reader submissions.
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December 3rd, 2016
Photo courtesy BullocksGuns.com, Flint, MI.
More guns were sold on November 25, 2016 (Black Friday), than on any other day in the history of the United States (based on NICS numbers). According to the NRA Blog: “On Black Friday 2016, the FBI processed 185,713 background checks through their National Instant Criminal Background Check System, breaking last year’s record by about 400 checks. Leading up to November’s Presidential election, gun retailers nationwide reported record sales in the month of October.”
In fact 2016 has been a record-breaking year for U.S. gun sales so far. It looks like, if gun sales continue at the current pace, more guns will have been sold in 2016 than in any other year in American history. The question remains, will gun sales remain high with a Republican in the White House?
The continuing record-setting volume of gun sales after the November election surprised some experts, who opined that the Republican election victory would ease concerns about future gun control. Such fears certainly drove gun sales in the first three quarters of 2016 as most “experts” predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the next President, and that she would push for restrictive gun laws.
Fast and Furious — FBI Processes Three NICS Checks Per Second
On Black Friday 2016, NICS Background Check processing topped Black Friday 2015 when the previous single-day record of FBI-processed gun transactions was set. In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2016 that the FBI was processing three background checks every second.
Think about that — three gun sales per second. That’s triple the normal rate of gun sales. The website The Blaze reported: “The typical Black Friday boom in gun sales doubles the number of background checks handled by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), from one per second on an average day to two per second.” On Friday afternoon November 25th, that figure had reached three checks per second.
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November 3rd, 2016
By all indications, Americans are buying more guns than ever before. Some pundits have joked that President Obama is the “greatest gun salesman in history”. Looking at NICS (FBI instant check) records, Dean Weingarten of the Gun Watch Blog concludes that 2016 will see new records set, likely surpassing 2015 as the year with the highest number of gun sales ever. CLICK Link to Gun Watch.
Weingarten writes:
The private firearm stock in the United States will have increased by nearly 100 million firearms, or 30%, during the two terms of the Barack Obama presidency.
Many indicators show a soaring and diverse level of gun ownership. Carry permits are burgeoning, approaching 15 million and more. Gun ownership among women and minorities is at an all-time high.
This October continued the record-breaking pace to establish 2016 as the year with the most gun sales ever. The 2016 NICS checks are far ahead of those for 2015, the previous record holder. In October 2016 there were 2,333,539 National Instant Checks done. In 2015, the NICS done in October were 1,976,759.
In 2015, the total NICS checks for the year were 23,141,970. In 2016, through October, they were 22,206,233. That is less than 1 million below the total for 2015, with the two biggest months in 2016 yet to happen. Last year there were 17,584,346 by the end of October.
A record number of NICS Checks may take place in 2016. Photo: Benton Co. Gunworks.
The numbers are 26.3% ahead of where 2015 was at this time. If this pace continues, 2016 will end up with 29.2 million background checks for the year.
Given the NICS numbers, there will probably be 17 to 18 million guns added to the private stock in 2016. That would increase the total number to over 400 million private firearms in the United States.
Who would have thought that President Obama would be the record-setting, all time champion, gun salesman? The total NICS checks will reach over 250 million by years end. That will be over 150 million firearms added to the private stock in the last 18 years (there are 0.6 sales per check on average). Over 37% of the private firearms stock will be less than 18 years old.
©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
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June 24th, 2016
Amidst the hue and cry (and Congressional sit-ins) calling for more gun control, few observers have actually looked at the facts. Do we, in fact, have an increasing gun crime problem in this nation? Is gun violence spiraling out of control, as the anti-gunners would have you believe?
What do the verified FACTS say (as opposed to the ‘sky is falling’ anti-gun zealots)? Well, the truth of the matter is that major gun-related crime rates have been steadily on the decline for more than a decade. Likewise, most of the major violent crime rates have been declining over the past two decades. What’s more, even accidental gun deaths have been declining despite a huge rise in gun ownership.
So the next time someone tells you that guns must be outlawed to halt a terrible increase in gun crime, you can respond, with 100% certainty, that gun-related crime is going down, not up.
And interestingly, as the supply of handguns has increased, the amount of property crimes has plummeted. Maybe the bad guys are thinking twice before breaking and entering…
Chart Source: www.GunFacts.info.
Gun Facts™ debunks common myths about gun control. It is intended as a reference guide for journalists, politicians and anyone interested in learning about gun control facts… crime, and the Second Amendment. The free Gun Facts e-book provides over 100 pages of indexed information.
Credit Boyd Allen for finding this first chart. We welcome reader submissions.
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June 22nd, 2016
The recent Orlando terror attack has sent Americans to gun stores in droves. Prompted by concerns for self-protection (as well as proposed new gun control laws), Americans are buying more guns — all types of guns. This reflects a general trend over the past few years. In fact, it looks like 2016 will see the highest number of gun sales in American history. Based on FBI background check data, it appears that 2016 will set new records for gun sales, with nearly 17 million new guns sold. By the end of the year it is projected that Americans will own 405 million firearms — over 1.25 guns per capita*.
Record-Setting Gun Sales in 2016
by Dean Weingarten, Gunwatch.
In 2016, Americans continue to break records for gun sales. While the National Instant Check System (NICS) does not track gun sales directly, the numbers are highly correlated. The numbers of NICS checks, and the increase in private firearms, have skyrocketed during the Obama administration.
It is possible, even likely, that 2016 will reach over 28 million instant checks. If we reach 28 million instant checks in 2016, that will be about 16.8 million new firearms added to the stock in 2016 [roughly 40% of NICS checks are for “previously owned” guns]. That projection puts us at 405 million private firearms in the United States at the end of 2016.
The total for 2016 (through the end of May) is 11,698,006 instant checks. That is more than the entire year of 2007, which held the record up to that year. Thus, during the Obama years, the number of private firearm sales has doubled. In 2015, the highest year on record, the total number of checks was 23,141,970. 2016 is shaping up to break the 2015 record by millions of instant checks.
May 2016 had the most instant checks of all the months of May on record. That makes 13 months in a row that have broken records for all previous years. If the trend continues, 2016 will reach the record numbers of 2015 by the end of October, with the busy months of November and December still ahead.
©2016 by Dean Weingarten, Gunwatch. Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.
*The USA has an estimated population of 322,762,018 according to a 2015 end-of-year estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: USNews.com.
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March 20th, 2016
Guns and more guns — over 12.25 million guns* were added to U.S. private inventories in 2014 based on reports from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). In 2014, 9,050,626 firearms were manufactured in the USA, while 3,625,268 firearms were imported and 420,932 firearms were exported. The total of guns made and imported in 2014 (minus guns exported that year) works out to 12,254,962 firearms, bringing the total U.S. cumulative stock to over 375 million! Yes that means there were over 375 million firearms in the USA as of the end of 2014. That’s more than one gun for every man, woman, and child in the country. And a lot more were added in 2015…
While the number of guns added in 2014 was impressive, it appears that the number of guns added last year (2015) may exceed the 2014 figures, breaking all-time records.
Dean Weingarten explains: “You see, 2015 was a record year for NICS checks, at 23,141,970. It will take another year before we find out if the number of firearms added to the private stock exceeded the record set in 2013, of 16.031 million. I expect that another 13.422 million will have been added in 2015, but it could be as high as 17.588 million, based on the 2013 ratio of NICS checks to firearms added.”
“The number of NICS checks for 2014 was 20.969 million, slightly lower than in 2013, which was 21.094 million (rounded to the nearest thousand). Many NICS checks are used to purchase firearms that are already in the private stock; a fair number are used for background checks on carry permits; and more than one firearm may be purchased with a single background check.”
Story based on report ©2016 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included. For more information: Link to Gun Watch.
*This 2014 firearms total includes rifles, shotguns, handguns and others, “others” being mostly receivers that might become either rifles or handguns when finished. It does not include firearms produced for the military services.
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