2020 has been the year of the gun. Firearm sales are up 95% in 2020. And, according to the NSSF, there were nearly 5 million first-time-ever gun buyers in the USA this year. A NSSF dealer survey estimates that 40% of all gun sales were conducted to purchasers who have never previously owned a firearm. Women accounted for 40.2% of all first-time gun purchases. Notably, firearm purchases among African American men and women increased 58% over last year, the largest such increase of any demographic group.
Gun Sales Up 95%, While Ammo Sales Are up 139% in 2020
Sales of guns and ammo have skyrocketed in 2020. Retailers noted that they are seeing a 95% increase in firearm sales and a 139% increase in ammunition sales over the same period in 2019. Several factors are contributing to the huge surge in firearm purchases. There were fears over the COVID-19 Pandemic and lock-downs. Then riots and social unrest followed. And many Americans believe they must “buy now” before Democrat-party politicians enact severe gun restrictions and national licensing schemes.
NSSF reports that nearly 5 million Americans purchased a firearm for the very first time in 2020.
Retailers reported a huge increase of first-time gun buyers, estimating that 40% of sales were to this group. (In the past just 24% of gun sales were to first-time gun buyers.) Semiautomatic handguns were the primary firearm being purchased by first-time buyers, outpacing the second-most purchased firearm, shotguns, by a 2:1 margin. Modern sporting rifles, revolvers, and traditional rifles rounded out the top five types of firearms purchased by first-time gun buyers.
Semi-Auto Handguns Are the Top Choice of First-Time Buyers
Retailers noted that these new customers were spending $595 on an average sale and that 40% of first-time gun buyers in the first four months of 2020 were female. The main purchase driver among the group was personal protection, followed by target shooting, and hunting. Also of note was that 25% of first-time buyers had already taken some form of firearms safety course.
Record Numbers of Gun Sales by Month
For most of 2020, the month-by-month levels of firearm sales have set new records, based on FBI NICS checks. For example, in July 2020, firearms sales were up 122.5% over July 2019, based on NSSF-Adjusted* background check numbers. And, previously, in March 2020, gun purchases were up 80.4% compared to the year before (based on Adjusted NICS checks).
March 2020
Many New Gun Buyers Are Women and Minorities
NSSF surveys revealed a 58% increase in firearm purchasing among African American men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group. Women comprised 40% of first-time gun purchasers. Gun sales have set records in 2020 — retailers reported a 95% increase in firearm sales and a 139% increase in ammo sales over the same period in 2019.
Several factors are contributing to the sustained surge in firearm purchases. Sales spiked in March, with a record-setting 2.3 million NICS background checks conducted for a firearm sale, the same month the coronavirus pandemic struck. There were also major concerns after protests lead to large scale rioting and social unrest. Additionally, Americans are concerned that, if Joe Biden is elected, and the Democrats capture the U.S. Senate, there will be draconian gun control measures enacted, including outright bans on semi-automatic rifles.
* The adjusted NICS data sets were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases. NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.
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C0VID-19 lock-downs and now riots and looting in America have caused Americans to be very concerned with the safety of their families and security of their property. Not surprisingly, gun sales have skyrocketed in 2020 compared to the year before. Notably, a significant percentage — 40.2% — of the firearms purchasers are FIRST-TIME gun buyers. And retail dealers say about 40% of those first-time buyers are females, a historically high number. Overall it is estimated that 2.5 MILLION Americans joined the ranks of gun owners during the first four months of 2020.
NSSF-adjusted NICS figures showing year-over-year increases of 80 percent in March and 69 percent in April 2020. These strong increases led to more than 6.5 million NSSF-adjusted background checks in the first four months of 2020, up 48% from 4.4 million during the same period in 2019.
NSSF May 2020 Survey of Firearm Retailers
In May 2020, NSSF surveyed firearm retailers to learn more about gun sales during the first four months of 2020. Retailers reported an increased number of first-time gun buyers, estimating that 40.2% of their sales were to this group. This is a huge increase — nearly double — over the 24% annual average of first-time gun buyers that retailers have reported in the past. Semiautomatic handguns were the primary firearm being purchased by first-time buyers, outpacing the second-most purchased firearm, shotguns, by a 2-to-1 margin. Modern sporting rifles, revolvers and traditional rifles rounded out the top five types of firearms purchased by first-time gun buyers.
All this equates to more than 2.5 million new gun owners in 4 months of 2020.
Retailers noted that these new customers were spending $595 on an average sale and that 40.1% of first-time gun buyers in the first four months of 2020 were female. The main purchase driver among the group was personal protection, followed by target shooting and hunting. Also of note was that 25% of first-time buyers had already taken some form of firearms safety course.
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Story based on Report by Dean Weingarten
The NICS numbers for March 2020 established new, all-time records for both the number of projected guns sales as well as the numbers of NICS background checks done in one month. In March 2020, 3,740,688 NICS checks were done, according to official FBI statistics.
The previous one-month NICS record was set in December of 2015, when 3,314,594 NICS background checks were done. In March of 2020, the FBI recorded 3,740,688 NICS background checks, 12% higher than the previous record. The number of NICS checks always exceeds that actual number of gun sales, because some checks are done for other purposes. The estimated number of recorded long gun, handgun, and other gun sales totaled 2,373,193 in March 2020, 7% higher than the previous sales record in December of 2015.
Guns Sales Driven by Pandemic Fears
According to MSN News, “With most of the nation in isolation to halt the spread of coronavirus … the FBI has seen a 41% increase in background checks compared to this time last year.”
Click Image to Go to MSN to Watch Video (then Click Speaker icon for audio).
Most Background Checks Were for Handguns
In March 2020, most of the purchases were for handguns instead of long guns. The numbers for March were: Handguns, 1,392,677 NICS checks, long guns, 758,073 NICS checks, other (mostly receivers, which could be made into either handguns or long guns) 79,129, and multiple 57,328. Multiple checks are multiplied by 2.5 to approximate the number of gun sales. Carry Permit NICS Checks Rising Faster
Notably, there has been significant growth in the number of NICS checks associated with CCW Carry Permit applications. NICS checks for carry permits and carry permit rechecks have been increasing much faster than checks for firearm sales. While states maintain their own databases for Carry Permits, NICS checks are done in connection with permit applications and renewals.
Total Guns in USA Close to 450,000,000
Using the figures available, there were about 430 million private firearms in the United States at the end of 2018. About 18.6 million have been added since then, putting the USA close to 450 million at this point. According to Dean Weingarten, the United States is on track to reach 500 million privately owned firearms by the end of 2024.
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The current Coronavirus Pandemic may be the most significant event to impact the United States since World War II. The majority of Americans are now “sheltering at home” under State Executive Orders. Across the nation, schools, shops, restaurants, and countless businesses are closed. The virus continues to spread at an exponential rate in the USA, which now has more confirmed Covid-19 cases than any other country on the planet. Yes, according to official statistics, we have more persons infected than does China, where this scourge originated. (However, there is considerable evidence that China may be deliberately under-reporting COVID-19 infections and deaths).
For obvious reasons, this Pandemic has Americans concerned about their safety and their security. As a result, citizens across the country are purchasing firearms. There are lines outside the doors of some gunshops. The rush to buy guns has led to a historic spike in NICS firearms background checks.
Record Number of FBI Background Checks for Gun Sales
According to MSN News, “With most of the nation in isolation to halt the spread of coronavirus, officials are seeing a spike in gun sales….the FBI has seen a 41% increase in background checks compared to this time last year.” According to the FBI, 3.7 million background check were run by the FBI in March.
Click Image to Go to MSN to Watch Video (then Click Speaker icon for audio).
And Fox News confirms that we are seeing a huge spike in gun sales and background checks: “The FBI ran more than 3.7 million gun background checks on Americans under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) in March, smashing the previous record as Americans armed themselves amid growing fears about the coronavirus pandemic. The NICS system ran 3,740,688 background checks in March, which is 33 percent higher than the previous record of more than 2.8 million, which was set in February. The February numbers were a 34 percent uptick from the same time in 2019. March’s background check numbers marked a 41 percent increase over March 2019.”
About the Numbers — There is NOT a 1:1 correspondence between NICS checks and gun purchases, because not all background checks involve an actual purchases. For example, some States run NICS checks for carry permit applications. It is estimated that at least 2.3 million March 2020 background checks were for firearms transactions.
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The Civilian Marksmanship Program (CMP) is closing all its facilities and halting all scheduled activities from Monday, 3/23/2020 through Monday, 4/6/2020. During this period the CMP recommended that all CMP match sponsors “cancel their matches until some degree of normalcy returns.” The CMP issued this statement today:
Greetings. Many are facing difficult times in regard to the recent Corona virus outbreak and the CMP community is among them. We are grappling with the status of many of our current and upcoming programs, and unfortunately several events will be canceled or altered as a result.
The federal government’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has proclaimed that all events with attendance of 50 or more should be canceled immediately. The CMP has complied with this directive and we are notifying customers and participants accordingly.
The CMP is shutting down all of its facilities and activities for the next two weeks, beginning Monday, March 23, with plans to return Monday, April 6. During that time, the CMP will monitor conditions and will report changes to that plan as required. CLICK HERE for additional closure information.
We encourage all CMP match sponsors to cancel their matches until some degree of normalcy returns. It is in the best interest of the CMP community to take positive precautions rather than deal with potentially damaging consequences otherwise.
The CMP thanks you for your understanding during these trying conditions. We look forward to greater times ahead and getting back to the business of firearms safety and marksmanship!
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Today a friend, who has never owned a gun before, called this Editor to ask for firearms recommendations after California officials announced a lock-down of six California counties, home to 6.7 million people. He wanted a gun for defense of his home and family (he has a wife and two young boys).
This story is being repeated around the country as many Americans seek to acquire guns for home defense, many for the first time. There are also concerns that governmental emergency powers, put into place to deal with the Coronovirus pandemic, will be used to throttle the sales of guns and/or ammunition.
In some cities in California, people are lining up around the block to buy guns and ammo. Many do not realize ID is required and there are background checks and waiting periods. Apparently they believed false media reports that firearms are easy to acquire. Our friend Vu Pham posted on Facebook: “Had several calls today [from acquaintances] asking me about buying their first firearm. They were shocked that they had to wait 10 days to actually take possession.”
Ammoland.com reports: “Gun and ammunition sales are surging around the country, including the Pacific Northwest, thanks apparently to concerns over the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the potential for, as noted by the Daily Wire, ‘a breakdown in civil order or even a suspension of weapons sales’.”
As reported by KTVU News, in Vallejo, Calif., “More panic buying has erupted due to the coronavirus. And in addition to disinfectants and other household goods, guns and survival gear are in demand.”
Dan Mitchell, owner of Sporting Systems in Vancouver, told Ammoland News via email, “400,000 rounds (of ammunition) sold last week. Line around the block.”
The Sacramento Bee interviewed Gabriel Vaughn, owner of Sportsman’s Arms in Petaluma, CA. Seeing many first-time buyers, Vaughn stated that people’s attitudes about guns have changed now that they feel threatened: “People … tell me that they don’t like guns, but they’re here to begrudgingly buy one.”
What if a neighbor asks to borrow a weapon for defense? You should follow all federal, state, and local laws. You need to be aware of the laws concerning firearms transfers, if the gun leaves your immediate control. This is not just like sharing a gun at the range. Dennis Santiago notes: “It is a illegal in California to transfer a firearm without a background check and waiting period. Tell that to your non-gun friends when they ask to borrow a gun. They will ask. The answer is NO.”
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As we draw closer to the 2020 Presidential election, we are starting to see an upturn in U.S. firearms sales, which had slowed somewhat after President Trump’s 2016 election victory. Combined firearms sales are up 17.3% compared to February last year. We are guessing that folks are getting a bit nervous about restrictions on firearms in the event President Trump doesn’t win a second term.
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates February 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 1,357,643 units, a year-over-year increase of 17.3% from February 2019. Handgun sales (793,301) increased year-over-year by 19.5% whereas single long-gun sales (441,516) increased year-over-year by 12.4%. All other likely background check-related sales (122,826) increased year-over-year by 22.1%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “it appears as if firearms owners are casting early votes in the upcoming presidential election this year: Unit sales in both, January and February 2020 have been at their highest levels since 2016.”
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for February, some 2,776,380) cannot be taken at face value as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in February the state of Kentucky conducted about 368,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 30,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sales.
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policy-making, as well as for financial analysts and the media.
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Are you planning to purchase or sell a gun? Or perhaps you want to give one to a family member. Maybe you want to transfer a gun to a friend out of state. These are all situations that demand you understand the law before you buy, sell, or transfer a gun. Thankfully the NRA Blog has a series of helpful articles that can guide you through firearms transfers and transactions. Do note that laws on private transfers vary from state to state.
Here are five articles providing key facts you need to know.
Click each title to read the specific article.
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By Dean Weingarten,GunWatch Blog
The first year of the Trump era National Instant Check System (NICS) has ended with the second highest number of NICS background checks on record. There were 2,586,138 NICS checks in December of 2017. There were 25,235,215 NICS checks for all of 2017. At the current 56 firearms per 100 checks ratio, we can expect that over 14 million firearms have been added to the private stock in 2017*. The number of private firearms in the U.S. is now approximately 418 million.
That is a drop of 9% from 2016 to 2017, but it is 9% higher than 2015. The only year to surpass 2017 was 2016, with 27,538,673, when Hillary Clinton was widely considered a shoo-in to be the next president. The next highest year was 2015, with 23,141,970. December 2017’s numbers alone were the fourth highest December on record, behind 2012, 2015, and 2016.
Prices Drop for Guns and Ammo
The reduction from the overheated firearms market that existed in 2016 is significant. NICS checks dropped by 9 percent. With that drop, prices of guns and ammunition have also dropped. And supply has increased — .22 LR ammunition is being seen on shelves where it had been mostly absent for four years. Bargain prices for modern sporting rifles such as AR-15 clones and good quality pistols have kept the overall numbers from dropping further.
It is a buyer’s market now for Guns and Ammo. Vendors are offering big discounts on Black Rifles such as the Savage MSR line.
*In a year and a month or two, we will know just how many firearms were added to the private stock in 2017. The ATF is not allowed to release the actual manufacture, import and export numbers for a year, by law. Note — there is NOT a 1:1 correspondence between NICS checks and gun sales. About 100 NICS checks are done for each 56 new firearms that are added to the private stock in the United States.
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Make no mistake — Americans still love guns. On “Black Friday”, November 24, 2017, a record number of guns were sold. Based on FBI National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) data, a new single-day record was set for gun transactions in the USA. More background checks were recorded on Friday, November 24th, 2017 than on any day in American history.
USA Today reported: “The FBI was flooded Friday with more than 200,000 background check requests for gun purchases, setting a new single day record, the Bureau reported Saturday. In all, the FBI fielded 203,086 requests on Black Friday, up from the previous single-day highs of 185,713 last year and 185,345 in 2015. The two previous records also were recorded on Black Friday.”
Black Friday 2017 Was Biggest Single Day Ever for U.S. Gun Sales
Thanks to attractive promotions from many vendors such as Brownells and Cabela’s, all types of firearms flew off the shelves last week. The FBI, which administers NICS, reports that NICS processed 203,086 transactions on November 24, 2017, making the day the highest Black Friday ever and the highest day in NICS history. The highest previous day was November 25, 2016 with 185,713 background checks.
The FireArm Blog notes: “This record-setting day comes [despite] a slowdown in gun sales on the heels of the surprise 2016 election results. It seems likely that overall demand for guns continues to be strong, but that in the absence of any imminent gun legislation buyers have more patience to wait for sales like those offered on Black Friday.”
Background Checks Vs. Actual Sales
NICS statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale.
Fast and Furious — FBI Processes Three NICS Checks Per Second
On Black Friday 2017, NICS Background Check processing topped Black Friday 2016 when the previous single-day record of FBI-processed gun transactions was set. In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2017 that the FBI was processing three background checks every second. Think about that — three gun transactions per second. That’s triple the typical NICS daily rate.
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More guns were sold on November 25, 2016 (Black Friday), than on any other day in the history of the United States (based on NICS numbers). According to the NRA Blog: “On Black Friday 2016, the FBI processed 185,713 background checks through their National Instant Criminal Background Check System, breaking last year’s record by about 400 checks. Leading up to November’s Presidential election, gun retailers nationwide reported record sales in the month of October.”
In fact 2016 has been a record-breaking year for U.S. gun sales so far. It looks like, if gun sales continue at the current pace, more guns will have been sold in 2016 than in any other year in American history. The question remains, will gun sales remain high with a Republican in the White House?
The continuing record-setting volume of gun sales after the November election surprised some experts, who opined that the Republican election victory would ease concerns about future gun control. Such fears certainly drove gun sales in the first three quarters of 2016 as most “experts” predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the next President, and that she would push for restrictive gun laws.
Fast and Furious — FBI Processes Three NICS Checks Per Second
On Black Friday 2016, NICS Background Check processing topped Black Friday 2015 when the previous single-day record of FBI-processed gun transactions was set. In fact, so many Americans lined up to purchase firearms on Black Friday 2016 that the FBI was processing three background checks every second.
Think about that — three gun sales per second. That’s triple the normal rate of gun sales. The website The Blaze reported: “The typical Black Friday boom in gun sales doubles the number of background checks handled by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), from one per second on an average day to two per second.” On Friday afternoon November 25th, that figure had reached three checks per second.
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For decades, shooters have depended on Brownells to provide tools, parts and accessories for nearly all kinds of modern sporting and hunting firearms. Starting this month, gun owners can now purchase rifles, shotguns, and pistols from Brownells, which has opened a web-based, gun sales division. The company’s entry into selling firearms online makes Brownells a true, one-stop-shop for gun owners and shooting sports enthusiasts.
“We’ve been a gun company from the beginning,” said Pete Brownell, CEO of Brownells. “For 77 years, we’ve serviced all corners of the firearms market – new shooters to gunsmiths. This is just one example of many upcoming programs we’ll be launching to serve every portion of the gun industry.”
Brownells’ new Firearms Sales Center features more than 3,500 production firearms from over 30 popular gun manufacturers, including Remington, Ruger, Browning, CZ-USA, Smith & Wesson, Sig Sauer, Beretta, Benelli, Glock and more.
Customers can order guns online using the simple, step-by-step instructions. The quickest, easiest method for completing an online gun purchase will be to choose a Brownells Featured Dealer from the online list of FFL dealers who have already agreed to perform transfers on guns bought from Brownells.
News Tip from EdLongrange. We welcome reader submissions.
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March 2020
As we draw closer to the 2020 Presidential election, we are starting to see an upturn in U.S. firearms sales, which had slowed somewhat after President Trump’s 2016 election victory. Combined firearms sales are up 17.3% compared to February last year. We are guessing that folks are getting a bit nervous about restrictions on firearms in the event President Trump doesn’t win a second term.
