Why Can’t I Find .22 LR Ammunition? Sierra VP Speaks Out
Matt Reams, the V.P. of Sales for Sierra Bullets, recently addressed the burning question in the minds of many shooters these days: “Where did all the .22LR rimfire ammo go — why can’t I find any?” Here is Matt’s answer, from the knowledgeable perspective of a firearms industry executive.
Why Can’t I Find .22 LR Ammunition? by Matt Reams
Even though Sierra Bullets does not make .22 LR ammo or projectiles, we are constantly asked “Why can’t I find any .22 LR ammo anywhere?” Even the conspiracy theorists are at a loss on this one as they can’t even blame it on the government. They toss around thoughts of warehouses full of .22 LR rotting away just to keep it out of their hands, but that does not seem very realistic – even to them.
So what is going on here? Why is it that 1.5 years later, the shelves are still empty and bricks of .22 LR can still be seen selling for upwards of $75-$100 at gun shows? I do not believe there is one answer, but rather a few. Here are my opinions on the matter, for what they are worth.
Hoarders – Some people are piling it away in their basements, garages, bunkers, and under their beds due to fear of not being able to find it again. This is not a huge factor in it, but it is still a factor to some degree. When these hoarders can’t find it on shelves, it only panics them more and causes them to buy even more when they do find it.
Gougers – These are the guys who prey on the fear of the hoarders. These are the guys that wait in line at Wal-Mart at 3 a.m. to buy up the daily allotment that Wal-Mart puts out at normal retail prices and then double or triple their price on the weekend gun show circuit. Again, not a huge factor, but keeping the shelves looking empty which keeps the panic level higher for those that are looking.
Demand – Now we are getting to the real meat of the issue. You hear manufactures say they are running 24/7 on their rimfire lines which is putting somewhere around 25-30 million rounds PER DAY (estimate on my part from numbers I have heard from the big rimfire guys) into the market – so how can there be a shortage? I have asked this myself – until we start doing even a little basic math. You hear all kind of numbers about how many firearms owners are in the USA, but you hear 70-80 million quite often. So for the sake of us not arguing that number – let’s cut it to 35 million. Do you know a gun owner that does not own at least one firearm chambered in .22 LR? Do you know any that are not looking for .22 LR ammo or would at least buy some if they saw it for normal prices? How many would they buy when they found it? A lot – right? But again, just to keep the argument on the low end, let’s say they would all be satisfied with just a single 500 pack. 35 million multiplied by 500 .22 LR rounds for them all – is 17.5 BILLION rounds. Let that sink in. Even at 25 million rounds being made PER DAY – that is 1.92 years’ worth of production.
Starts making some sense then doesn’t it? Hoarding and panic emptied the shelves. Gougers try and keep them empty and demand does keep them empty. Then factor in that I probably cut the real number of 22 LR shooters in half and probably underestimated the amount everyone would buy if they found it at normal prices by 300% and you can see how deep the problem really is and why it is not going to go away tomorrow. It also does not take into account the world market – just the USA.
How will it get better? Slowly. The hoarders will get to a point that they feel they have enough or will run out of money. The shelves will start getting enough on them that the gougers cannot buy it all. This will make people stop paying $50-$75 for a brick at gun shows. That will make it less profitable for the gougers to spend their money on and they will stop. The shelves will start to have product again which will ease people’s fears and get them back to buying what they need today instead of what they need for the decade. There is no fast answer.
Are the manufactures hiring people for extra shifts and adding capacity – sure they are. But it is easy to just expect them to ramp up production overnight to take care of our needs, but that is just not realistic. We get the same thing here. The market certainly has not grown 500% so what happens when companies add all that super expensive equipment when things get back to normal? They take a bath on it for sure and waste capital that they could have used to improve their company in a way that makes them stronger. Instead they just added equipment they may never need again and have to mothball while they lay off workers they no longer need. Not a great way to run a business and not a fair way to treat employees.
We all just have to trust that it will get better, do not buy more than we need and wait it out. It will not get better overnight. It will start out with a box here and there and then a few and then slowly the shelves will get back to having all the supply and selection we picky consumers are accustomed to and will certainly appreciate much more than we ever did before… if only for a little while.
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Tags: .22 LR, ammo, Ammo Shortage, Ammunition, Rimfire, Sierra Bullets
Rimfire ammo is hanging off the shelves at Cabelas in Alberta. The 1400ct Remington Golden Bullet buckets are stacked high wide and deep $76Cdn. I do not understand why some marketing redistribution is not in order. This is absolutely the American shooters fear of its own government!
Its been well over a year since the shortage has begun. Although I can sympathize with the accurate issues listed above I have to say ive never seen a industry that has had such a hard time keeping up with demand. If in my business someone said I will buy ten times all you can make at twice the price, id find a way. All the early talk was manufactures leery of ramping up as they feared things would go back to normal. That turned out to be a bad call and has added to the delays. Also why anyone would hoard .22 ammo is also beyond me. If .22 ammo is banned we have more problems them hoarding can solve.
It’s not just the manufacturers of the ammo that has to keep up. There is a whole trickle down effect that people forget about.
Think about what has to happen for a manufacturer to ramp up production. It’s not just adding people and machines….they have to get the raw material suppliers that supply the lead, copper, brass, powder etc…..up to speed….then they also have to order ammunition test barrels is another component…..then schedule the production time and if they are running basically max’d out…..look what happen to Hornady when the dropped/discontinued bullets/ammo. There is only so much time in the day, weeks, months….
Later, Frank
How comes you can go to other countries and buy all you want. Shelves are full at places like Jamaica and other foreign countries.
I think Matt Reams is saying is that shooter are doing more damage to shooters then any law ever could.
Classic panic buying model. Suddenly people will realise that the “shortages are over” and will stop buying in bulk and things will get back to normal for a while – then the manufacturers will work out that they are over producing etc etc.
Any company would only dream of a demand for the their products as huge as this. To not capitalize on the increase in market is plain nonsense.
Not fair to employees? Wow that just not even a consideration. Jobs are in demand even if there only temp. Machinery and tooling will always be assets.
The lead free conjecture isn’t helping either …
I can almost believe what Matt Reams is saying in his article. What I can’t figure out is why there is no high end rimfire ammunition to be found. Do hoarders really have the money ($15 per box of 50) to stockpile Eley, Lapua, and Federal match grade ammunition. The reloading powder producers are suffering in a simeler .
Sorry, I messed up my last thought and pushed submit. What I was trying to say is, it is still very hard to find reloading powder in any quantity. I would normally buy 16 or so pounds of Varget during any particular year (8 Pound containers). Most recently I have not found any at any price. Can demand continue at this pace or is Hodgdon cutting back on production.
At this point there is no explanation that I find acceptable, considering that we supposedly have a free economy. The ammunition suppliers have FAILED the shooting public. My own theory is that the manufacturers are being threatened with loss of government contracts if they don’t curtail supply to the general public.
Hodgdon don’t make Varget, Australian Defence Industries (ADI) make it (ADI AR2208 as we know it)for them and re-badge it.
The US demand has soaked up all the supplies here in Oz as well, and the Mulwala plant is operating at full capacity in a vain attempt to keep up. I hope your situation settles down soon. If we can’t get ADI powder, we can’t get anything!
What is going on is business analysis 100. If demand is greater than your production capabilities adjust your production to maximize profits. Utilizing existing capacity makes more money than increasing it. This is why you could get 45 ammo at the height of the shortage and you couldn’t get 9mm. Both are very close in production costs but the contribution margin is much higher for 45. How much do they make on .22, 9mm ball or 5.56 ball? Any more or less premium ammo? If you reload you know the answer. And guess what… they also manufacture firearms using the same analysis. There simply is no need for them to increase capacity (in their business model) – they are selling all they can make of the best of their lines. We will get more 22 when people quit buying 22 firearms. Eventually you kill off product lines as demand for them falls.
I for one am transitioning to air rifles more and more. No need to reload, no need to drive to the range, just as accurate in match guns, a fraction of the cost and no regulations. Field target is just as challenging as any centerfire game.
Powder Valleys take on the ongoing shortage
Powder Valley
I have a few tidbits of “opinionated statements” to make regarding the powder shortage. Matt makes some great points on how the primary problem is demand driven. The difference between 22LR and components is that manufacturers must make a choice on what components go to their ammo or other manufacturers ammo and what goes to reloaders. If you look at the supply of Winchester and Remington components you will find that there just aren’t hardly any to be had anywhere. Based on that the only logical interpretation is that Winchester and Remington are allotting their components to ammo. In order to produce their ammo and leave the reloaders with nothing they must have a great supply of powder. I believe the primary supplier of powder to Remington and Winchester is St Marks in Florida. All of Winchester powders are produced by St Marks. St Marks also produces powder such as Titegroup, H335, H110 and you can pretty much say if it is a spherical powder it probably comes from St Marks. Every US packager of powder I have spoken with states they have received hardly any canister powder from St Marks since the third quarter of 2013. In addition, Hodgdon has been limited to one container of power per vessel out of Australia since December 2012. Typically Hodgdon had two containers of powder on each vessel. This is due to port authority rule changes in New Zealand and now Australia. Why these changes were made is anybody’s guess. However, in a recent conversation with Hodgdon they believe this is going to be resolved in the very near future. Hodgdon is the largest player in the US market for smokeless powder. You just took the largest player in the market and cut their supply in half. Take into account the fire at ADI that burned the Clays and you can see that the high demand is not the only driver in the supply shortage for smokeless powder. Thankfully the supply out of General Dynamics in Canada has been much better. However no increase in production from a single manufacturer will make up for the drop in supply to Hodgdon and the extreme powder allocation St Marks is making to the ammo manufacturers vs the reloaders. Again this is one mans opinion. So, feel free to fire away and I will provide you my two cents.
This is typical of today’s corporations regardless of industry. The focus is only on the short-term.
There is little long-term planning, few even have departments capable of analyzing the factors that will drive future demand and have staffing recommendations seriously considered by the Boards.
Regardless of the reason for the increased demand, they have no one but themselves to blame for not reacting to it.
Can you imagine if just ONE player had gotten ahead of the curve on demand? A fortune lost.
Also, “F” the hoarders/preppers……….;)